Guidelines for Making a Successful Transition from Autocracy to Democracy

With public and political attention firmly transfixed by events in Libya are we at risk of loosing focus when it comes to Tunisia and Egypt? Are we in danger of seeing these revolutions as self-contained events rather than the start of a wider and more protracted process of reform?  

I’m grateful to Alex Evans at Global Dashboard for publicising a talk given by Nick Grono, the Deputy President of the International Crisis Group, to a Wilton Park Conference on 2 March. The whole talk is worth a read, but what I find most interesting is his list of seven key lessons on “what approaches can best support reform and improve the chances of a transition ultimately leading to a peaceful and democratic state.

Nick Grono - Deputy President of ICG

In case you don’t get time to read his intervention here is a paraphrase of his seven points:

1. Reform has to happen quickly before the impetus runs out, which it will very quickly. If reforms don’t happen almost immediately, the opportunity is soon lost. Not full democratic transition of course, but enough to establish momentum for continued transformation.
2. Democratisation after protests may come more easily and rapidly in places that don’t have deeply entrenched traditional elites. Frequently popular uprisings are co-opted or taken over the by the members of the existing elite.
3. Try to get the military out of politics as quickly as possible. They rarely go back to the barracks unless there is a powerful civilian component to the revolt leadership. More often than not the military just ends up undermining democratic development. Political parties end up looking to the military instead of voters for their blessing.
4. Get elections right. That means not holding them too early, or too late, and understanding they are not an end game. Often it will be better to build elections from the ground up – starting with local elections before moving to parliamentary or presidential polls, as local democracy helps build capacity.
5. Understand that outsiders are largely bystanders during the transition – at least in the initial chaotic stages. Where outsiders may have a role is supporting any transition after the initial stages, but even here influence is likely to be limited.
6. Don’t try to pick winners. It’s too often an irresistible temptation for international actors, and it usually fails. The focus should be on building institutions over preferred individuals.
7. Conflict prevention matters. The long-term painstaking work of investing in institutions, building the rule of law and developing civil society may be the most effective way for outsider actors to influence these transitions, in the years before they occur.

There is much here that makes sense and points five and six certainly chime with what I’ve written before. My worry however is that points 1–4 appear to be having little traction.

Essam Sharaf - Egypt's New Prime Minister

Take Egypt for example. The appointment of a new Prime Minister, Essam Sharaf, on Saturday, suggests that the revolution has been able to maintain its momentum for change, but it remains a leaderless movement divided both on strategy and objectives. The recent flash mob attacks on state security offices across Egypt highlight the unspent fury and anger of many who have suffered at the hands of the Mubarak regime and signal the impatience for real change.

It is the military, however, rather than the protesters who are determining the pace and depth of Egypt’s political transition. The decision to press ahead with parliamentary elections in June looks wildly premature and risks becoming a contest between Mr Mubarak’s old national democratic party and the Muslim Brotherhood. If that occurs, and if Nick Grono’s analysis holds, then the elections might yet spark further violence.

Although we are largely bystanders to Egypt’s political transitions and while we should avoid picking winners, should we not be committing greater resources – political, diplomatic and financial – to help build strong, impartial institutions and the rule of law?

Such efforts are unlikely to show any significant reward by June, but they might help long-term should Egypt’s political transition prove more protracted.