Tunisia: The Jasmine Revolution and its Implications for other Ancien Regimes

Just as many African countries will be studying the implications of the Sudanese referendum – if Sudan, why not the Congo, Nigeria, and the Ivory Coast – so several Middle Eastern countries will be watching carefully the unfolding events in Tunisia – if Tunisia, why not Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia?

Optimist that I am, I think it unlikely that Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution will lead to a tsunami of civil society induced democratic reform across the Middle East similar to the velvet revolution that marked the end of communism in Eastern Europe.

For one, the cocktail of popular grievances and prevailing conditions in Tunisia are not easily identifiable in other countries. Saudi Arabia is not Tunisia. 

For another, autocratic rulers across the Middle East will surely learn the lessons of Ben Ali’s incompetent handling of this crisis and take necessary corrective measures. These are likely to include steps to alleviate the worst of the economic situation while introducing yet tighter security controls.

If this were to happen many Middle Eastern countries will continue to limp along as they have in the past, never really advancing but never really dissolving into chaos.

As far as Tunisia is concerned, it remains far from certain that the Jasmine Revolution will have a happy ending. I hope it does, but the situation remains too fluid for such a conclusion to be made with any degree of certainty.

Can a previously repressive and authoritarian political system hold free and fair elections within 60 days? With Ben Ali now in political exile in Saudi Arabia, will the popular opposition fade away or fracture so giving space for the old order to reassert itself? Only time will tell.

This is not to downplay the need for political reform in the Middle East. Hilary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, was surely right when in a tough speech in Qatar last Thursday she warned Arab leaders that their countries risked “sinking into the sand” of unrest and extremism unless they liberalized their political systems and cleaned up their economies.

The rising tide of violence against religious minorities in the Middle East is a clear example of what happens when as Hilary Clinton argues extremist elements, terrorist groups and others prey on desperation and poverty, appealing for allegiance and competing for influence.

Herein lies the dilemma for many within the Western Christian world – appeals to authoritarian governments in the Middle East to crack down on the violence against Christians could provoke yet more destructive feelings of despair and empower radicals.

Does such a strategy risk extenuating the divisions between Arab Christians and Muslims at a time when they should be finding common cause and purpose in pressing for political reform for all?