Predictions for 2011

Crystal ball gazing is always precarious when it comes to foreign policy, but here are my predictions for the year.

1. The Department for International Development tries and fails to provide a ‘value for money approach’ to overseas development by creating an internal market in development aid;   
2. The British military draw down from Afghanistan accelerates throughout the year even though Obama’s 2009 surge looks unlikely to deliver;
3. The Euro zone continues to muddle though but there will be signs of an embryonic fiscal union;
4. The British Coalition Government have a major bust up over Europe – probably over the Referendum Bill. 
5. Negotiations with Iran continue apace – Iran will accelerate its nuclear cycle, but fall short of crossing over the nuclear threshold;  
6. Manchester United will win the double – Premiership and Champions League;
7. The Obama Administration increasingly focuses on domestic policy as it seeks a second term;
8. Come August, the EU and its member states begin to develop a more forceful and independent foreign policy to Israel regarding Palestinian statehood;
9. Cameron claims that Britain’s winning of the Euro vision song contest is illustrative of Britain’s growing soft power;
10. The UN Climate Change talks in Durban make slow but steady progress but fall short of delivering a successor to the Kyoto Protocol.

Of these the only one that I am certain of is No 6 – Manchester United to win the double. The one I’m least sure of is No 9 – I suspect we will get nill points as normal.

What are your top 3 predictions for 2011?